Statistical Modeling of Hunting Success Using Hunter Surveys
نویسندگان
چکیده
Different methods are available to estimate the wildlife population development. In this paper a method based on hunter surveys of a Spanish game preserve is proposed. A Poisson model is fitted to estimate the relationship between hunting success and other independent variables. In order to find the most appropriate model, a model selection procedure based on repeated cross validation is used to determine which explanatory variables describe the hunting success better in terms of prediction ability. The estimated model is successful in the case of the red legged partridge (Alectoris rufa). The model can be used for applying different management criteria in a game preserve. Some possibilities are demonstrated for particular scenarios. Zusammenfassung: Verschiedene Methoden zur Schätzung der Entwicklung einer Tierpopulation stehen zur Verfügung. In diesem Artikel wird eine Methode basierend auf Aufzeichnungen von Jägern in einem spanischen Wildgehege vorgeschlagen. Ein PoissonModell wird angepasst, um die Beziehung zwischen Jagderfolg und anderen unabhängigen Variablen zu schätzen. Um das am besten geeignete Modell zu finden wird ein Modellauswahlverfahren basierend auf wiederholter Kreuzvalidierung verwendet, um festzustellen, welche erklärenden Variablen den Jagderfolg besser in Bezug auf Prognosefähigkeit beschreiben. Das geschätzte Model ist erfolgreich im Falle des roten Rebhuhns (Alectoris rufa). Das Modell kann zur Anwendung verschiedener Management-Kriterien in einem Wildgehege verwendet werden. Einige Möglichkeiten werden für bestimmte Szenarien erläutert.
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